Primary aluminum markets in China are set to continue to witness surplus supply in 2024, as the rate of production would outpace consumption, sources and analysts said.
消息人士和(hé)分析師預計(jì)：2024年中國原鋁繼續呈現(xiàn)供應過剩的局面，因爲生産速度将超過消費量。
However, output cuts in Yunnan, China's major aluminum hub, could emerge as a "wild card" in 2024, which could impact total aluminum supply in the case of worsening power shortages that would lead to more capacity curbs, according to industry experts.
然而，據行業專家稱，中國主要鋁中心雲南的減産可能(néng)會(huì)在2024年成爲“不确定因素”。這(zhè)可能(néng)會(huì)影響鋁供應總量，因爲電力短缺加劇(jù)，将導緻更多的産能(néng)限制。
Despite this situation, sources said they expect profit margins of Chinese smelters to remain healthy, as oversupply continues to weigh on domestic alumina prices while rising bauxite imports relieve raw material supply pressure in the domestic market.
盡管存在這(zhè)種情況，但(dàn)消息人士表示，他(tā)們預計(jì)中國冶煉廠(chǎng)的利潤率将保持健康狀态。因供應過剩繼續打壓國内氧化鋁價格，而鋁土礦進口增加緩解了(le)國内市場的原材料供應壓力。
The Platts China Domestic Alumina Daily assessment stood at Yuan 3,000/mt ($421/mt) ex-works Shanxi on Dec. 21, about 0.16% higher from the year-ago level. Platts is a part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.
根據普氏能(néng)源資訊，12月21日，中國國産氧化鋁日估價爲3,000元/噸（421美(měi)元/噸）山西出廠(chǎng)價，較去年同期上(shàng)漲約0.16%。
There is limited new capacity set to come on stream in 2024, with established primary aluminum capacity already close to the national capacity ceiling of around 45 million mt/year, sources said.
消息人士稱，2024年投産的新産能(néng)有限，已建立的原鋁産能(néng)已經接近全國約4,500萬噸/年的産能(néng)上(shàng)限。
Most of the new projects were capacity transfers based on capacity replacement policies or those obtained quotas subjecting to certain special policies.
大(dà)多數新項目是基于産能(néng)置換政策的産能(néng)轉移，或者是受某些(xiē)特殊政策約束的配額。
Russian aluminum is set to dominate China's import markets amid Russia's war with Ukraine, keeping Chinese imports at elevated levels, market sources said. Meanwhile, China's aluminum exports are expected to see a decline due to a slower recovery in overseas demand, they said.
市場消息人士稱，在俄羅斯與烏克蘭的戰争中，俄羅斯鋁将主導中國的進口市場，使中國的進口保持在較高(gāo)水(shuǐ)平。與此同時(shí)，他(tā)們表示，由于海外(wài)需求複蘇放(fàng)緩，預計(jì)中國鋁出口将出現(xiàn)下(xià)降。
來(lái)源：普氏能(néng)源資訊 電解鋁編譯、整理(lǐ)
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